Wednesday, September 9, 2009

YOU'VE HEARD IT BEFORE -- BUY LOW, SELL HIGH AND PROTECT PROFITS

Here at Hill And Street News, we have written that our stance was to ease into gold when the prices were right – and then to take profits along the way as gold moved higher. It is a stance that has worked.

But when things are going right, there is always the tendency to get cocky. It is impossible to know precisely how far folks will carry individual sectors or the market in general to the upside or downside because emotions are such a huge factor. But the goal must always be to remain watchful over true economic facts (and we believe that US economic problems are not all solved – the farther the US dollar falls and gold soars, the greater the negative impact on our nation’s economy) and to try to anticipate what will happen in the future, all the while taking advantage of current opportunities – acting when prices are right, taking profits along the way.

We believe that it would be a mistake to pump serious money into such an extended market when economic problems are not yet all fixed. But we will continue to look for long-side opportunities – easing into them at the right prices and taking profits along the way.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

IMPORTANT READING

UN PANEL TOUTS NEW GLOBAL CURRENCY RESERVE SYSTEM, Breitbart

UN SAYS NEW CURRENCY IS NEEDED TO FIX BROKEN 'CONFIDENCE GAME', Bloomberg

U.S. DISPLACED BY SWITZERLAND AS MOST COMPETITIVE, Bloomberg

CHINA ALARMED BY US MONEY PRINTING, Telegraph.co.uk

UN WANTS NEW GLOBAL CURRENCY TO REPLACE DOLLAR -- IMPORTANT READ

The dollar should be replaced with a global currency, the United Nations has said, proposing the biggest overhaul of the world's monetary system since the Second World War.

U.N. WANTS NEW GLOBAL CURRENCY TO REPLACE DOLLAR -- CLICK HERE TO READ

AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND

Friday closed at around the best levels of the day. The S&P 500 remains technically okay, although the move higher on lighter volume following the bigger volume move lower could be a warning sign.

But the larger picture will be the G-20 meetings, including who holds the positions of leadership and the chatter around the continuation of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. There is a lot that can impact currencies, a lot that can impact the US dollar. That's all important.

Over the really, really long-term, we like silver and gold. But talking “now,” we have believed it prudent to incrementally take profits along the way up. In the markets, remember, once again, that the trend is your friend until it is not. And there always comes a time when the wind shifts the other way.

We believe that over the really, really long term, gold will go higher – but this is looking way ahead. And we believe that crude oil will go higher too.

But what is critical is “now” – making the right moves now to increase profits and to hang on to those profits. So we watch the winds and make small moves accordingly. Even if we believe in "higher" way down the road, there is time between now and then -- and market can go considerly lower before it goes higher again. There are the yellow warning flags that must be watched -- so we want to make the right moves now to be in a better position for some time down the road.

Friday, September 4, 2009

FRIDAY -- WITH A HOLIDAY WEEKEND AHEAD

Most of yesterday was quite flat – but that squeeze that we mentioned as a possibility happened during the final hour yesterday, giving the market the kind of strong finish that we have seen often over the past few months. Although volume was not heavy, the Bulls were able to finally get something going.

“The U.S. jobless rate in August jumped to 9.7 percent, the highest since 1983, and employers cut another 216,000 jobs, highlighting threats to consumer spending,” reports Bloomberg.

Trading may be choppy today -- given the strong finish yesterday, the Bulls may be able to take the market higher today. But remember, too, that if there is a gap up, it can also fade. So keep a vigilant eye.

We will be watching the market winds closely – still sticking to the pattern of small moves. The holiday weekend generally means that many traders and investors are off for some fun with family – and light volume can lead to some whippy action.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

THURSDAY, KEEPING A SHARP EYE

After some pretty ugly action lately, the S&P500 did give up a bit more yesterday on above average volume – with major Indices finishing just a bit off their worst levels. Over the past few days, strength has been sold. But, still, there has been no real technical damage and uptrend remains intact. There has been no evidence that the dip buyers have gone away. And it appears that there will be a higher open today.

We have often spoken of our keeping an eye on the precious metals, believing that gold could reach about $1,000 an ounce. And the goldminers have performed as expected.

We will sound like a broken record – but, once again, we believe that it is important to keep an eye on the $USD. The dollar has been showing weakness, and the thought is that investors have been looking for the safety of gold.

We will watch whether this morning strength gets sold – and there is always the possibility of a squeeze here.

Be careful out there.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

WEDNESDAY -- COMPUTER PROBLEMS FIXED

Yesterday was a rather ugly day as traders once sold good news -- and there was huge volume into the close. Financials were hard-hit as folks showed their concerns about the real health of banks. Commodities go hit with the exception of precious metals. And while the S&P 500 remains in its uptrend, this was still all of this action was worrisome for the Bulls.

At Hill And Street News, we have had an uneasy feeling about the market for weeks. We believed that at minimum, the market needed desperately to consolidate. But we have also been concerned about economic problems that remain unsolved.

Is this the consolidation that we have needed -- some profit-taking was destined to happen. Or is the market actually showing some more serious deterioration here? The huge volume off highs hints at institutional selling which is a bit worrisome. But technically the market is still in an uptrend.

We still believe that any moves should be small as we wait for better signals of where the market will go from here. Be careful!