Wednesday, July 15, 2009

INTEL SETS THE TONE

Intel had a beauty of a report, bringing a rise of 7.8 percent in early trading after its revenue forecast topped analysis’ estimates. Just what the doctor ordered, huh? In fact, semiconductors have actually been one of the better acting groups in front of Intel’s report.

“Intel’s results reflect the stabilizing environment,” said CEO Paul Otellini. And while Otellini thinks that US businesses probably will not be shopping for new PCs until next year, he explained that consumers in Asia, especially China, are leading the recovery.

Remember, though, that the market is fickle – and what is giddiness one day can quickly turn to despair with countering news. Some earnings reports may give the Bulls some steam and frighten those troops with short positions based on the head and shoulders pattern and poor action in the resource camp, something that we have been alluding to and something to keep in mind. And even a strong initial showing can get faded – so as always, we will take things easy. And we’ll keep an eye on the S&P 500.

As if we didn’t know, earnings season can be extremely tricky – another reason for careful, slow moves.

The technical traders who placed their faith in that head and shoulders pattern suffered with the change in course. We had already mentioned that there could be that situation of covering short positions. Some traders are always looking for the quick pot of gold, hitting the exact moment that the tide turns – and then they get caught in the wrong camp, but it has always been our stance to move slowly and expect that anything can happen.



Ours is what we call the “Perry Como” approach. No one except old folks may remember Como, but he was a barber turned singer who was famous for his unwavering slow and easy style. My mother was a Como fan, so I grew up with his music. And I think that Como would have been good at doing what we do.

Remember, it is early – there are more reports to come this week. Don't get too caught up in things today -- remember, the market can turn on a dime. We are keeping our wits about us.

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